13-Week Cash Forecast

Opening cash. Latest TB's Closing Cash & Bank (bank + cash-in-hand, TB-sourced).

Open receivables. Every open invoice in the Debtors Ageing, scheduled at its due date, multiplied by a collection probability based on how overdue it is: current / 0-30d overdue → 90%, 31-60 → 70%, 61-90 → 40%, 91-180 → 20%, 181-365 → 10%, 1y+ → 5%. Overdue invoices roll to Week 1.

Projected run-rate revenue (Management view only). Uses seasonal average monthly revenue = ₹201,000, converted to a weekly run-rate of ₹41,605 (monthly × 90% collection ÷ 4.35). For each week, we fill the gap between the week's known AR and this run-rate — so weeks with heavy named AR don't double-count, and weeks with no named AR don't go empty. Switch to Contracted-only view to see the pessimistic pure-contractual case.

Payables. Every open invoice in the Creditors Ageing, scheduled at due date at 100%. Overdue bills roll to Week 1 (you owe now). Projected Direct Cost run-rate (symmetric to revenue): fills the gap between the week's known AP and the 3-mo avg direct cost run-rate — captures continuing purchasing beyond the specific bills in the ageing file. Critical for trading/manufacturing clients where Direct Cost is the biggest outflow; marginal for services firms.

Recurring opex (cadence-aware). Average monthly opex: ₹40,413. Placed on realistic dates by category — Employee Cost / Partner Remuneration / SaaS → 1st of month; Office & Admin → 5th; Professional Fees → 15th; Statutory & Tax → 20th. Genuinely bursty categories (Travel, Sales & Marketing, Repairs) stay weekly-smoothed. Bad Debts skipped (non-cash).

Statutory dues. GST projected monthly on 20th, TDS on 7th, PF/ESI/PT on 15th — amounts from the TB's liability ledgers. First due is "high" confidence; subsequent monthly occurrences are "low" (may be paid or new liability accrued).

Loan EMIs. No loan ledgers detected in the TB (auto-detect scans for categories containing borrow / loan / emi plus name-regex matches). Enter an EMI manually if the client has off-TB loans.

Planned one-off items. None supplied. Use the Planned items control above with format label~amount~YYYY-MM-DD~kind (tilde-separated; pipe to join multiple). Positive amount = inflow, negative = outflow. Kinds: capex / equity / tax_refund / dividend / other.

Disputed-invoice exclusions. None supplied. Use the Exclude control above to list invoice numbers (comma-separated) that shouldn't be counted — disputed AR, held-back AP, anticipated write-offs.

Capex-spike protection. When averaging opex across the historical window, we apply a trimmed mean — drop the single largest month — so a one-off capex spike in any of the base months doesn't pollute recurring-opex projections. Pass ?no_capex_trim=1 to disable.

Seasonality window. You're currently using Seasonal-index. Change at top. Seasonal-index formula: current_3mo × (same_month_avg ÷ 12m_avg). Captures seasonal pattern while adjusting for recent trend/growth. Falls back to 12m trailing when same-month data is insufficient (<2 samples) or too divergent (>2.5× between FYs — one is anomalous), OR when the seasonal index is extreme (>3× or <0.33×). Best for festive-heavy retail, education cycles, or any business with a repeatable annual pattern.

Per-client cadence customisation. Today opex cadence (Employee Cost on 1st, Office & Admin on 5th, etc.) is firm-wide. Per-client overrides via a Settings page are future work — useful when a specific client actually pays rent on the 10th or runs fortnightly payroll.

Growth assumption (months 4-12). Not applied. Months 4-12 assume flat revenue and expenses (0% growth). Businesses rarely stay truly flat for a year — use the Growth controls above to set realistic annual % growth for Revenue, Direct Cost, and Opex separately. Defaulting to 0% is the historical silent assumption, now made explicit so the CFO can override. Loan EMIs and user-supplied planned items do NOT scale with these percentages (they’re contractually fixed or one-off). Known AR / AP invoices also don’t scale — they’re specific bills with specific amounts.

Partial payments. The engine treats each AR/AP invoice as a single lump at due date. If a customer is on a weekly/fortnightly part-payment plan, the single due-date placement overstates that week and understates the follow-up weeks. Workaround: exclude the invoice via Exclude and add a Planned item for each expected tranche. Native part-pay schedules are future work once the Receipts register is parsed at transaction level.

What's NOT included (yet).

• Per-client cadence overrides — opex cadence (Employee Cost on 1st, Office & Admin on 5th) is firm-wide. A per-client Settings page is future work (useful when a specific client pays rent on the 10th or runs fortnightly payroll).
• Intra-month part-payment schedules — see Partial payments above.
• W4 Scenario Simulator — "what-if" overlays (e.g. "top-5 customers pay 15 days late", "GST rate bumps 2%", "new loan drawn in July") layered on this base. On the backlog.